As the automotive industry continues to evolve, 2025 presents unique challenges and opportunities for auto claims and collision repair professionals. From rising repair costs and shifting customer expectations to the growing influence of electric vehicles, it's crucial to stay ahead of the curve.
This report, built on nearly $2 trillion of historical data processed by customers using CCC Intelligent Solutions, provides the essential insights you need to think strategically about the year ahead. By understanding emerging trends and leveraging actionable data, repairers and insurers alike can improve operational efficiency and stay competitive in a rapidly changing market.
In the following report, you'll find critical trends facing the industry, followed by focused views of the data impacting auto insurance - both APD and casualty – and vehicle repair.
Whether you're preparing to optimize workflow processes or adjust to new market demands, these insights can help guide your planning efforts and ensure you are well-positioned to thrive in 2025 and beyond.
The following key trends are positioned to shape the future of vehicle repair and claims management.
The lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to influence the auto insurance and repair industries. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, particularly in semiconductor production, may continue to impact parts availability in 2025, potentially leading to longer repair times and increased costs. Additionally, inflation – should it persist – and growing vehicle complexity, may continue to drive up repair expenses, placing financial strain on both insurers and repairers.
Costs across industries – including the auto sector – have seen significant increases, with inflation peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. Auto repairers and insurers may face continued cost increases in 2025, from parts and labor to administrative expenses. While inflation moderates, the auto repair and insurance industries may need to continue focusing on efficiency strategies to maintain profitability, depending on how inflation trends unfold.
As vehicle complexity continues to increase, the rising number of replacement parts per vehicle and the growing labor hours required per repair may impact the repair industry in 2025. Repairers will likely need to manage more intricate and time-consuming repair processes, driving up repair costs and potentially extending repair cycle times. This trend may put pressure on both repair shops and insurers to find more efficient ways to manage processes and maintain service quality. Growing vehicle complexity is also likely to further increase the number of supplements needed during the repair process. Delays in supplement approvals could significantly slow down repair cycle times, making it crucial for insurers and repair shops to streamline this process to avoid unnecessary delays.
Corporate nuclear verdicts, where awards exceed $10 million, saw a 50% increase in frequency from 2019 to 2023, contributing to rising casualty costs and insurance premiums. This trend may place added pressure on insurers to adjust rates to cover rising litigation expenses.
The global supply chain continues to face threats from labor shortages, union strikes, and wars, in some cases causing supply chain disruptions that can impact vehicle production. Strikes affecting major auto manufacturers have resulted in production delays and supply constraints, exacerbating vehicle shortages and inflating the cost of both new and used vehicles. Additionally, strike-driven disruptions could delay vehicle repairs, as key parts become harder to source or experience increased lead times due to halted manufacturing processes. If the trend continues, it may further affect the auto industry into 2025. In addition, events like the Key Bridge collapse, which caused major supply chain delays, are impossible to predict but underscore the need for proactive risk management strategies.
The sharp rise in the average transaction price for new vehicles, increasing from $36,555 in January 2019 to $48,166 in July 2024, may start to level off as dealers now face an oversupply of new vehicles that they are eager to sell. The narrative has shifted from new vehicle availability to a question of vehicle affordability. With elevated prices and financing rates in excess of 7% persisting, many consumers find vehicle ownership increasingly out of reach. As a result, this challenge could lead to fewer new vehicle sales and drive- up demand for used vehicles. For insurers, higher repair and replacement costs may still be a concern, but the focus is now shifting to managing claims for an aging car parc in a market where new vehicles are abundant, but consumers are hesitant to buy due to pricing.
The decline in the number of collision repair technicians, from 158,600 in 2017 to 152,500 in 2021, may continue to exacerbate capacity challenges in repair shops in 2025. With fewer skilled technicians available to manage the increasing volume of complex repairs, repair cycle times could lengthen, placing further strain on the industry. However, recent trends indicate some improvements in repair cycle times, suggesting that repair shops are adapting through new technologies and more efficient processes. Despite these gains, the ongoing technician shortage will likely require a continued focus on strategies to keep cycle times manageable. This could include investments in recruitment, training, and technology. Additionally, insurers could play a larger role in supporting the talent pipeline, especially as more individuals from tech programs transition into related roles like appraisers and claims representatives.
In 2025, risky driving behaviors, such as increased speeds and distracted driving, may continue, contributing to elevated accident rates and repair demand. With nearly 60% of drivers engaging in dangerous actions in 2024, including more than 32% driving distracted, repair shops could see sustained or even increased demand for services. While ADAS technologies aim to reduce crashes, data continues to indicate two forms of morale hazard with drivers: over-reliance on ADAS systems to prevent crashes or other incidents, and riskier driving behaviors. Combined with technician shortages, these trends could put additional pressure on repair capacity. That said, human behavior is inherently unpredictable due to emotional, environmental, and situational factors that data alone can't always capture or foresee.
Read on to learn more about the specific implications for APD, Repair, and Casualty.
According to July’s Insurance Information Institute & Milliman forecast, the P&C industry ended 2023 with a net combined operating ratio (NCOR) of 101.7%, an improvement of 0.7% versus 2022. This was a notable improvement relative to January’s estimate, where the industry was expected to finish 2023 at a 103.9% NCOR. The improvements were attributed to premium growth, expense ratio improvements, and favorable loss performance in Q4. Personal auto ended 2023 with an improved combined ratio of 104.9, 7.3 points better than 2022. Notably, Triple-I & Milliman reported that the loss ratio for personal auto was 67% in Q1 2024, which had peaked at 86% in Q4 2022. (Figure 1)
APD Figure 1: P&C Industry Net Combined Operating Ratio (2017-2026)
SOURCE: INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE & MILLIMAN (UPDATED JULY 2024)
Vehicle Sales & Vehicles in Operation
While reduced new vehicle availability at the onset of the pandemic led to decreased new vehicle sales, those challenges have largely been replaced by a different set of economic barriers.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Total New Light Weight Vehicle Sales remain below 16 million vehicles on a 12-month moving basis through July, at 15.63 million. The U.S. averaged 17.26 million new lightweight vehicles sold on a 12-month moving basis from September 2015 through February 2020. As the supply of new vehicles is up +35 days year-over-year (per Cox Automotive, as of July), consumers are currently facing continued elevated new vehicle prices, financing costs, and general economic woes as a result of inflation – all of which continue to slow the recovery of new vehicle sales.
According to Experian, 289.6 million total vehicles were in operation through Q1 2024, an increase of 3.6 million vehicles since Q1 2023. According to S&P Mobility, the average U.S. vehicle age has now increased to 12.6 years, reinforcing the trend toward a more mature U.S. vehicle pool.
July 2024’s average APR was 7.1% for new vehicles and 11.4% for used. Both new and used APRs have reached points not seen since the Great Recession: New vehicle APR last hit 7.4% in Q2 2007 (7.5%) and used vehicle APR is the highest since Q4 2007 when it climbed to 11.4%. 17.8%of new auto loans have a monthly payment of $1,000 or more, increasing from 17.3% in Q1. Edmunds reported that in Q2 2024, 23.9% of new vehicle sales with a trade-in had negative equity, the highest in two years, and that consumers who are upside down in their auto loans owe an average of $6,255. Negative equity on electric vehicles in Q2 increased to $10,326, up from $5,469 in Q2 2022. (Figure 2)
APD Figure 2: 12 Months – Moving New Light Weight Vehicle Sales (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
As of Q2 2024, auto loans accounted for 9.1% of total household debt (the quarterly average has been 9.3% since 2016). Total auto loan debt in the U.S. now exceeds $1.6 trillion.
According to the New York Federal Reserve Bank, 2.9% of auto loans became 90+ days delinquent in Q2 2024, up from 2.4% in Q2 2023. Though high, delinquency rates are below those of the financial crisis era, where rates were as high as 3.48% (Q2 2009).
Paid Claims Frequency Trends
According to FastTrack’s paid claim frequency trends, through Q1 2024, 12-Month Moving Auto Collision frequency continues to slowly decline. Liability (Property Damage) claims frequency has also flattened out over recent quarters and remains well below historic norms. (Figure 3)
APD Figure 3: 12 Months – Moving New Light Weight Vehicle Sales (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
Comprehensive paid claim frequency has declined slightly in recent quarters and remains at or near historic levels. Miles driven are +0.8% YoY through the first half of 2024 and +0.3% compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic). However, dangerous driving behaviors like speeding, distracted driving, aggressive driving, and impaired driving continue to plague America's roadways.
Consecutive years of poor loss performance have driven auto insurance costs higher. The July consumer price index for motor vehicle insurance is +7.2% YTD, +18.6% YoY, and +49.6% compared to 2019. Inflation for all items has increased by 2% YTD, +2.9% YoY, and is +22.6% relative to July 2019. (Figure 4)
APD Figure 4: Paid Claim Frequency Trends
SOURCE: TOP INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL SERVICE (ISS) FASTTRACK | BOTTOM U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION
The Insurance Research Council reported that 14% of drivers are uninsured and J.D. Power reported that 5.7% of American households with at least one vehicle do not have insurance. (Figure 5) Factoring in the aging car parc, consumers with older vehicles could be more prone to increasing deductibles or dropping first party coverages, decreasing policy limits, or electing to go without insurance altogether.
APD Figure 5: Percentage of Uninsured Motorists (2017-2022)
SOURCE: INSURANCE RESEARCH COUNCIL
Used Vehicle Values
In July 2024, the consumer price index for used cars and trucks was -10.9% YoY. Wholesale indexes, which generally serve as leading indicators for retail pricing, reflect any further decreases. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was -4.8% in July 2024 and the Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index was -15.3% during that same period. (Figure 6)
APD Figure 6: Used Vehicles Retention Index, Values, and Consumer Price Index
SOURCE: BLACK BOOK (RETENTION INDEX), MANHEIM WHOLESALE (VALUE), AND U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS (CPI)
Total Loss Frequency
Year-over-year through July 2024, CCC data indicates a 1.8% increase in vehicles flagged total loss in 2024 relative to2023, primarily due to the continued erosion of used vehicle values and an increasingly mature vehicle pool, as 73% of valuations across all loss categories are for vehicles 7 years or older. (Figures 7 and 8)
APD Figure 7: CCC National Industry Total Loss Share of Claim Count (CY 2013-2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
APD Figure 8: CCC National Industry Total Loss Share of Claim Count (CY 2016-2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
An increased total loss frequency will, conversely, decrease the ratio of repairable vehicles. Higher physical damage severity losses, which might have been repaired a year ago, are more likely now to be totaled, increasing shop capacity and lowering overall cycle times.
While these appear to be promising signs for consumers, used vehicle price volatility is not without its pitfalls in the current economic conditions. As used vehicle prices continue to decrease, the possibility of consumers being underwater due to unfavorable loan terms increases. Transunion reported that Q1 2024 used vehicle loan-to-value (LTV) ratios averaged 123%, down slightly from 125% in Q1 2023 and up from 110% in Q1 2022, 104% in 2021, and 112% in 2020. (New vehicle LTVs were 100% in Q1 2024, down from 104% in Q1 2023 and 105% in 2022).
Between 2020 and 2022, the average adjusted vehicle value (AAVV) increased by almost 49%, from $10,184 to $15,134, according to CCC’s total loss valuation data. Through July 2024, CCC has seen an overall decrease of -6.2% relative to YTD 2023 through July, with an average adjusted vehicle value of $13,655. Through July, average adjusted vehicle values were -3.2% year-over-year 2023vs. 2022, a stark flip relative to 2022, which saw the AAVV increase +26.2%. (Figure 9)
APD Figure 9: Total Loss Values & Mix
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
As vehicle values decrease, segments of ancillary coverages, such as GAP (guaranteed asset protection) coverage, could be required to cover larger payouts than anticipated. Understanding how asset values are shifting could be an additional step product, pricing, and underwriting departments could undertake to ensure pricing adequacy amidst market fluctuations.
Vehicle Theft
According to NICB, there were 1,020,729 vehicle thefts in 2023, a 1.2% increase relative to the revised total for 2022 of 1,008,756 thefts. 208,668 (20.4%) of thefts were in California, followed by 115,013 (11.3%) in Texas. States with the largest YoY increases include:
The percentage of total losses as a result of theft continues to remain above historic norms. Q2 2024 saw a flattening following a slow decrease from the high in Q3 2022. (Figure 10)
APD Figure 10: CCC National Industry Thefts as Percent of Total Loss Valuation Counts (CY 2016-2024, by Quarter)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
* Learn more about CCC’s ADP solutions here.
The vehicle repair industry has shown signs of improvement following the apex of prolonged cycle times and elevated costs that bled into 2023 after an especially challenging Q4 2022.
When we reported on the average total cost of repair (TCOR) last quarter, 2023 stood at 7.1%. Due to development, TCOR has grown to 7.3%. (Figure 1)
Vehicle Repair Figure 1: CCC National Industry, Average Total Cost of Repairs - All Loss Categories Repairable Appraisal Statistics
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
Historically, auto physical damage loss development is relatively swift; however, recovering backlogs and prolonged cycle times continue to delay the maturation of data. The average TCOR for H1 2024 currently stands at $4,642 – a 3.7% increase relative to H1 2023 ($4,477). This increase may indicate that TCORs are beginning to fall back in line with inflationary trends.
Parts Costs
Following the large increases in average parts costs in 2021 and 2022, the average price per part increased a modest 0.2% in 2023. Through Q1 2024, the average price per part was down -0.7% compared to Q4 2023. However, the average price per part increased by 2.4% in Q2 2024, the largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022. (Figure 2)
Vehicle Repair Figure 2: National Industry Repairable Appraisals - Average Cost per Part (all parts, including attachments across all part types)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
The rate of change for the average number of parts per appraisal appears to be slowing after consecutive years of large increases. The average went from 11.2 parts per appraisal in 2020, to 12.2 in 2021, and 13.3 in 2022. 2023 stands at 13.7 parts per repair and H1 2024 averaged 13.6 parts. (Figure 3)
Vehicle Repair Figure 3: CCC National Industry Non-Comprehensive Repairable Appraisals - Average Number of Parts Replaced per Claim
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Total Cost of Repair (TCOR) Contribution
Total repair costs jumped double-digits in 2021 and 2022. When indexed against 2020, parts contributed over 50% of the increased repair costs. As labor rates began to rise in 2022, we saw labor - especially non-paint labor - account for a larger share of increased repair costs. Another key contributor is the prevalence of diagnostics in vehicle repair, which often shows up in miscellaneous (sublet) estimate line items. (Figure 4)
Vehicle Repair Figure 4: Average TCOR Change vs 2018 – Contribution by Type (2019-2024, Collision & Liability)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Labor Rates
The outlier driving overall repair cost increases in 2023 was labor rates, which were up 7.4% for the year and came on the heels of a 7% increase in 2022. Based on appraisals uploaded to CCC on behalf of insurance companies, labor rates are +3.5% YoY; however, when only comparing the first halves of 2024 and 2023, labor rates are +4.9% in 2024.
The average number of labor hours per appraisal in 2023 increased slightly to 27.6 hours, also following large jumps in back-to-back years (2021 and 2022). H1 2024 appears stable at 27.4 hours. (Figure 5)
Vehicle Repair Figure 5: National Industry Non-Comprehensive Repairable Appraisals - Average Number of Labor Hours per Claim
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
What's notable here is this labor rate increase took place in 2022 and 2023, whereas the number of labor hours, parts volume, and parts prices saw their largest increases a year prior – in 2021 and 2022. (Figure 6)
Vehicle Repair Figure 6: CCC National Industry Average Labor Rates per Labor Category CY2018-CY2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Mean labor rates from estimates are lagging 9 months behind general inflation - the consumer price index for all items. YoY labor rate increases peaked in February of 2023 as opposed to general inflation, which reached its apex in June of 2022. (Figure 7) As the rate of inflation continues to slowly decline, labor rate inflation is coming closer to falling in line.
Vehicle Repair Figure 7: Labor Rates vs. Consumer Price Index Inflationary Trends Comparison
(YoY% Change by Month)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC., U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Productivity and Cycle Times
Cycle times – including time between appraisal completion, vehicles going into the shop, and repair time – continue to improve, though both productivity and cycle times still lag pre-pandemic levels. Based on the current data, Q1 2024 saw continued improvements in cycle times, as vehicles were able to get into shops for repairs in almost two days less than in Q4. Also, average repair time decreased by 1.7 days. While these trends are likely to develop further, they are indicative of decreased shop backlogs, lower severity repairs, and increased productivity. (Figure 8)
Vehicle Repair Figure 8: CCC National Industry DRP Repairs - Quarterly Cycle Times Comparison
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Q1 2024 data currently reveals significant quarter-over-quarter drops in average time for vehicles to go into a shop for repairs following estimate completion. While we should anticipate Q2 results to increase for this metric as the data develops, the general trend reflects continued improvements in shop backlogs. (Figure 9)
Vehicle Repair Figure 9: CCC National Industry DRP Repairs Estimate Sent to Vehicle In Days Average by Drivable Flag
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
This is also reflected in Crash Network’s U.S. National Collision Repair Scheduling Backlog, which has shown improvement from 5.8 weeks in Q1 of 2023 to 4 weeks in Q1 2024, and, most recently, 2.7 weeks in Q2 2024 – a two-week improvement versus prior year! – Q3 results decreased another 0.1 weeks, to 2.6 weeks. (Figure 10)
Vehicle Repair Figure 10: U.S. National Collision Repair Scheduling Backlog in Weeks
SOURCE: CRASH NETWORK
Additionally, shop productivity – measured in labor hours per repair day – saw improvement in Q1 and Q2 2024 for non-drivable vehicles. Productivity should remain a focal point for the collision repair industry. As compared to pre-pandemic productivity levels, cycle times for labor require an average of four additional days for drivable vehicles and eight days for non-drivable vehicles. (Figure 11)
Vehicle Repair Figure 11: DRP Repairs Comparison
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
Despite evolving customer sentiment, slow infrastructure execution, and relatively high average new vehicle prices, the electric vehicle segment continues to grow. According to Kelley Blue Book, electric vehicle sales increased by 7.3% in the first half of 2024. Electric Vehicles (EVs) now make up 1.1% of vehicles in operation (~3.3 million vehicles) while internal combustion engine vehicles account for 92% of the mix.
EVs represented 2.4% of all repairable claims in H1 2024, up from 1.6% in H1 2023 according to CCC's estimating data. (Figure 12)
Vehicle Repair Figure 12: EV and Non-EV CCC National Industry Estimate Volume (2018-2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Note: Due to an internal database update, the historical data has changed for this chart compared to the data published in previous Crash Course reports.
The EV car parc remains relatively young in comparison to the mature U.S. vehicle pool. The average vehicle age of a repairable EV is 2.4 years, while the average repairable non-EV is 7.09 years old. 78.7% of repairable EV estimates are for vehicles 3 years old or newer; 46.5% of repairable non-EVs are 7 years or older in the first half of this year. (Figure 13)
Vehicle Repair Figure 13: EV and Non-EV Vehicle Age and TCOR
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
EV Repair Costs
According to Cox Automotive, the average new vehicle transaction in July 2024 was $48,166 while the average EV was $56,435 (+17.1%). The average EV costs 46.9% more than the average non-EV to repair. However, as we must emphasize, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
The non-electric vehicle segment of the car parc is larger and more mature than the emerging EV segment. 78.7% of H1 2024 repairable EVs are 3 years old or newer, while 27.8% of non-EVs are 3 years old or newer. For vehicles 3 years old or newer, the average H1 2024 EV TCOR was 6,924, which was 20.4% higher than non-EVs within the same age group.
Appraisal Parts and Labor
Labor accounts for the largest contribution to the difference between EV and non-EV repair costs for vehicles 3 years old or newer, though we are beginning to see parts costs account for a larger share of EV repair costs. Labor accounted for 43.3% of total repair costs in EVs 3 years or newer and 36.5% for non-EVs in the first quarter. Parts are almost the exact opposite – 38.7% for EVs and 42.6% for non-EVs. And in H1 2024, non-EVs 3 years or newer averaged 29.8 labor hours per appraisal, while EVs from the same model years required 34.2. (Figure 14)
Vehicle Repair Figure 14: CCC National Industry EV vs Non-EV: 3 Years Old or Newer (2022-2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
On average, labor costs were 42.8% higher per estimated repair on EVs in H1. This is a noticeable decline from the average of 56.9% in 2023. While parts costs neared parity in 2022 between EVs and non-EVs, parts costs per estimate for EVs are beginning to increase relative to non-EVs. The gap was only 0.3% in 2022; it increased to 2.2% in 2023, and now stands at 9.4% in H1. (Figure 15)
Vehicle Repair Figure 15: CCC National Industry EV vs. Non-EV Repairable Vehicle Age Comparison (H1 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Cycle Times
Electric vehicles continue to see improved cycle times. In 2022, EVs had an average of 35.7 days between last estimate assignment and vehicle in (to the shop); this was compounded by an average repair time of 20.4 days. While we should expect some development for Q2 repairs, initial results for H1 2024 indicate that last estimate assignment to vehicle in have improved by over 13 days relative to H1 2022 and repair times are down by 4.5 days. (Figure 16)
Non-EVs saw a decrease of almost 10 days for last estimate assignment to vehicle in between H1 2022 and H1 2024, and a 1.6-day improvement in repair times. Cycle time improvements can be attributed to an increase in total loss volume, lower shop backlogs, and, for electric vehicles, a continued awareness and familiarity with the nuances of this emerging segment.
Vehicle Repair Figure 16: CCC National Industry DRP Repairs Cycle Time Comparison (Updated Through Q1 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Valuation Trends
A comparison of the percentage of vehicles flagged total loss by age for EVs and non-EVs indicates that EVs are being totaled less than their non-EV counterparts. In taking a closer look at more recent model years, EVs are currently flagged total losses ~1% more for current year or newer vehicles, 2% less for vehicles 1-3 years old, and 2% less for vehicles 4-6 years old.
In H1 2024, insurers flagged 10% of EV estimates, and 22% of non-EV estimates, as total losses – both of which are increases relative to the prior year. As the data indicate, non-EVs flagged total skew older. Over 73% of all vehicles flagged total are 7 years or older. Older non-EVs were flagged on 25% of all appraisals for the 7 years or older segment. (Figure 17)
Vehicle Repair Figure 17: CCC National Industry EV vs. Non-EV Repairable Vehicle Age Comparison (Q1 '24)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
* Learn more about CCC ONE® Total Repair Platform here.
Casualty trends have been a mixed bag as of mid-year 2024, with first party auto billing inflation heating up, while third party has cooled slightly. Impact severity continues to track comparable to prior year, still notably higher than pre-pandemic baseline. First party medical billing inflation has accelerated, driven mainly by PIP states, while third party inflation has decreased compared to recent years, although still outpacing CPI.
Radiology, Surgery, and Eval & Management continue to increase as a percentage of all procedure dollars, driven by gains in both frequency and cost of high dollar procedures such as CT Scans, Steroid Injections, and ER Physician bills. Outpatient surgery and radiology (MRI) procedures continue to appear earlier in the treatment cycle than previously observed. Platelet-rich plasma therapy (PRP) continues to increase rapidly infrequency within third party billing. Auto premium increases implemented to stabilize profitability continue to drive growth in Uninsured and Underinsured Motorist injury claim submissions.
Impact Severity
First, let's address crash frequency by reviewing impact severity. The average Delta-v is comparable to prior year as of H1 2024, with the highest average Delta-v observed in Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan, and Rhode Island as of H1 2024. (Figure 1 & 2)
Casualty Figure 1: Average Delta-v by Claim Create Date | Collision and Liability Claims (2021-H1 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 2: Average Delta-v by State | H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Third Party Claims Frequency
Paid bodily injury frequency has been relatively flat since 2022, remaining roughly 15% below pre-pandemic baseline. (Figure 3)
Casualty Figure 3: Paid Claim Count by Quarter | Personal Auto Bodily Injury
SOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK
Third Party Claim Indemnity
The average third party bodily injury paid outcome is now $27K per injured party, which represents a 9.8% increase since Q1 2023 and a 43% increase since Q1 2020. (Figure 4)
Casualty Figure 4: Average $ Paid Per IP by Quarter | Personal Auto Bodily Injury
SOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK
Uninsured or Underinsured Motorists
We continue to observe increases in the percentage of 3rd party claims submitted for injuries caused by an uninsured or underinsured motorist, which has increased 35% since H1 2023. This is consistent with unusually high inflation of personal auto premium costs driving increased policy shopping and higher uninsured/underinsured rates. (Figure 5)
Casualty Figure 5: Percentage of Third Party Features Submitted as Uninsured or Underinsured Motorist (UM/UIM)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Medical Billing Inflation
The average 3rd party medical bill submission per injured party increased 5.6% since H1 2023. (Figure 6)
Casualty Figure 6: Average Medical Bill $ Submitted per Injured Party (Through Q3 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Third party bill line severity has increased 5.4% since H1 2023. (Figure 7)
Casualty Figure 7: Average Medical Bill $ per Bill Line Excluding Duplicates (Through H1 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
The largest severity increases in key volume states since H1 2023 have occurred in Pennsylvania, California, Minnesota, Ohio, and Georgia. (Figure 8)
Casualty Figure 8: Key States Avg Medical Bill $ Submitted per Bill Line | % Change H1 2023 vs H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Procedures
The distribution of procedure dollars shows increases in Radiology, Evaluation & Management, and Surgical in H1 2024. (Figure 9)
Drilling further into procedure category gains, price increases occurred in nearly all subcategories, with bill frequency increases also occurring for CT Scans, MRIs, Surgeries, Injections, and most Eval & Management. (Figure 10)
Casualty Figure 9: Percentage of Medical Bill $ Submitted by Procedure Category
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 10: Frequency and Avg Medical Bill $ Per Line H1 2023 vs H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Earlier Outpatient Surgery & Radiology
The average number of days between date of loss and treatment has decreased for outpatient surgery and diagnostic procedures, with notable cost increases on those same procedures over the last year. (Figure 11)
Casualty Figure 11: Average DOL to Service Date (Days) & Average $ Billed Per Line | Service Dates H1 2023 vs H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Rising CT Scan Frequency & Severity
The average CT Scan charge is increasing significantly as of H1 2024, while frequency is increasing slowly, moving closer to an average of three CT scans per injured party (when ER treatment present). (Figure 12)
Casualty Figure 12: CT Scans | Average $ Billed Per Line and Average Unique Procedures per Injured Party
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Rising PRP Treatment Frequency
PRP procedures (0232T, P9020) continue to increase rapidly in frequency. PRP code 0232T is now the 6th highest surgical procedure by total dollar amount billed. PRP utilization has further consolidated in California, where over half (54%) of PRP procedures (0232T, P9020) were billed in 2024 to date, versus only 47% of units billed in 2021. (Figures 13 and 14)
Casualty Figure 13: Platelet Rich Plasma (PRP) Procedures | Frequency and Average $ Billed, Less Duplicates
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 14: PRP Procedures | Percentage of All Units Billed by U.S. State (H1 2024)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Frequency and Indemnity
PIP claim frequency continues to decrease, down 7.5% since Q1 2023, while PIP claim paid outcome per injured party stayed relatively flat, increasing 1.7% from Q1 ‘23 to Q1 ’24. (Figures 15 and 16)
Casualty Figure 15: Paid Claim Count by Quarter | Personal Auto PIP
SOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK (UPDATED H1 2024)
Casualty Figure 16: Average $ Paid Per Injured Party by Quarter | Personal Auto PIP
SOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK (UPDATED H1 2024)
Medical Billing Costs
First party bill line severity has increased 6.1% since H1 2023. (Figure 17) The average dollar amount billed per line is less in states where PIP is required, but the gap is narrowing. The average dollar amount billed per line for PIP states increased 7.3% since H1 2023, while all other states increased 1%. (Figure 18)
Casualty Figure 17: Average Billed Per Line Less Duplicates by Client Received Date (excludes bills > $250K)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 18: Average Billed Per Line Less Duplicates by Received Date | PIP Requires states vs All Other (excludes bills > $250K)
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
For key volume states, the most notable line level increases since H1 2023 have occurred in New Jersey, Florida, Michigan, and Massachusetts. (Figure 19) The distribution of procedure dollars shows notable increases in Surgical and Radiology in H1 2024. (Figure 20)
Drilling further into Radiology and Surgical growth, movement is driven by both cost and frequency increases within most procedure subcategories. (Figure 21)
Casualty Figure 19: Key States | % Change in Average Billed Q1 2023 vs Q1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 20: Procedure Categories | % of $ Billed by Client Received Date
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Casualty Figure 21: Procedures | Frequency and Average $ Billed H1 2023 vs H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
Average days between date of loss and treatment has decreased for outpatient surgery and diagnostic procedures over the last 3 years, with notable cost increases on injections and MRIs. (Figure 22)
Casualty Figure 22: Average DOL to Service Date & Average $ Billed Less Duplicates | H1 2021 vs H1 2024
SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.
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Note: Where CCC Intelligent Solutions Inc. is cited as source, the data provided is an aggregation of industry data related to electronic appraisals communicated via CCC’s electronic network or from total loss valuations processed by CCC. Where CCC Casualty is cited as a source, the data provided is an aggregation of industry data collected from claims data communicated via CCC Casualty’s electronic network.
